Are Managers in High-Technology Industries More Overconfident?

[[abstract]]本研究檢視高科技產業和高研究發展支出 (R&D) 公司管理階層是否比其他產業的管理階層較為過度自信，以台灣上市和上櫃公司為樣本，期間自1999年至2021年，使用年度資料。使用管理者持股變動狀況和五項財務決策兩種方法定義管理者整體而言是否過度自信，為本研究的被解釋變數。實證結果發現：對管理者過度自信的兩種定義得到不同結論；只有以公司五項財務決策所作定義下，實證結果與假說預期一致，即研發支出較高的公司、高科技 (電機機械、生技化工及電子產業) 的管理者較傾向過度自信。此外，從控制變數之結果合理性判斷，此種定義下的迴歸結果指出高R&D支出、Tobin’s Q、資產規模、長期負債比率和管理者總持股率都與管理者過度自信有顯著的正相關比較合理並與理論一致，而以管理者持股年增減狀況判定之下，其迴歸自變數中，較高R&D、Tobin’s Q、資產規模較大及發放現金股利的公司竟得到管理者傾向沒有過度自信之結果較不合理。因此，以公司五項財務決策中有三項 (含) 以上認定為管理者過度自信即確定其過度自信，應是較無偏誤的衡量方式。[[abstract]]The empirical results show that the two definitions of managerial overconfidence lead to different conclusions. The results measured by the two definitions of managerial overconfidence are not consistent. Only under the definition of the company's five financial decisions, the empirical results are consistent with the hypothesized expectation, that is, managements of companies with higher R&D expenditures and high-tech (electrical machinery, biotechnology, chemical and electronic industries) tend to be overconfident. In addition, judging from the reasonableness of the results of the control variables, the regression results under this definition point out that R&D expenditure, Tobin's Q, asset size, long-term debt ratio and managerial total shareholding ratio all have a significant positive correlation with managers' overconfidence, which is also reasonable and reasonable. Consistent with the theory, and based on the annual increase and decrease of managers' shareholdings, among the regression independent variables, companies with higher R&D expenditure, Tobin's Q, larger assets, and cash dividends get the result that managers tend to be less overconfident. less reasonable. Therefore, if three or more of the five financial decisions of the company are identified as overconfidence of managers, it should be a relatively unbiased measure to determine their overconfidence