Effectiveness of strategically located Green Stormwater Infrastructure networks for adaptive flood mitigation in a context of climate change

Studies indicate Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) on industrial land can provide substantial adaptive flood mitigation within urban catchments under climate change. To identify a cost-effective adaptive GSI network, planners need to evaluate flood mitigation capabilities of industrial properties through time and understand key characteristics informing when, where, and how GSI should be implemented for maximum effect. We applied the Hydrology-based Land Capability Assessment and Classification (HLCA+C) methodology to a catchment in Christchurch, New Zealand, to evaluate the capabilities of industrial properties clustered into Storm Water Management (SWM) zones under different climate change scenarios. SWM zone potentials and limitations were assessed to develop the most capable adaptive flood mitigation network with climate change. We prioritised six of twenty SWM zones for inclusion in the network based on their substantial flood mitigation capabilities. To maximise their capabilities through time, we orchestrated, and implemented GSI in zones incrementally, using different implementation approaches based on key characteristics determining their capability. The results indicated that the most capable zone could mitigate climate change-induced flooding, by itself, up to the end of this century under the moderate climate change scenario. However, if its capability was combined with that of five others, together they could mitigate flooding just shy of that associated with the major climate change scenario up to the end of this century. The resulting adaptive industrial GSI network not only provides substantial flood protection for communities but allows costly investments in flood mitigation structures, such as barriers and levees, to be safely delayed until their cost-effectiveness has been confirmed under increased climate certainty