Crime Prediction using Machine Learning with a Novel Crime Dataset

Crime is an unlawful act that carries legal repercussions. Bangladesh has a high crime rate due to poverty, population growth, and many other socio-economic issues. For law enforcement agencies, understanding crime patterns is essential for preventing future criminal activity. For this purpose, these agencies need structured crime database. This paper introduces a novel crime dataset that contains temporal, geographic, weather, and demographic data about 6574 crime incidents of Bangladesh. We manually gather crime news articles of a seven year time span from a daily newspaper archive. We extract basic features from these raw text. Using these basic features, we then consult standard service-providers of geo-location and weather data in order to garner these information related to the collected crime incidents. Furthermore, we collect demographic information from Bangladesh National Census data. All these information are combined that results in a standard machine learning dataset. Together, 36 features are engineered for the crime prediction task. Five supervised machine learning classification algorithms are then evaluated on this newly built dataset and satisfactory results are achieved. We also conduct exploratory analysis on various aspects the dataset. This dataset is expected to serve as the foundation for crime incidence prediction systems for Bangladesh and other countries. The findings of this study will help law enforcement agencies to forecast and contain crime as well as to ensure optimal resource allocation for crime patrol and prevention.Comment: 24 page