CeLL, an agent based model for exploring the spatial influence influence of climate change on Lobesia botrana population dynamics

International audienceThe European Grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana) is one of the most noxious vineyard-pests in the European and Mediterranean area. Its larvae feed on grapevine flowers and berries, and usually cause considerable damage, also by facilitating saphrophytic infections to berries.The biology of L. botrana has been investigated since the 80s. A number of studies has tested its physiology and behaviour in experimental conditions (Hurtrel et Thiéry 1999), in field conditions (Stockel et al. 1994), and using mathematical modelling techniques. Whereas the modelling approaches that have been proposed in the literature are hetereogeneus they generally focus on the phenology and population dynamics of L. botrana, rather than analysing the role of spatial variability on its infestations and mating behaviour. For this reason we propose here an agent based model (CeLL model), where we take into consideration spatial effects on L.botrana infestation dynamics. Our aim is to gain further insight into the processes and interactions occurring at the vineyard, population and individual level.The use of agent based modelling allows us to integrate population dynamics within a spatial frame (the vineyard) where individual insects act by following development, movement and mating “rules”. In its first version, CeLL (Confusion Landscape Lobesia) focused on the identification of processes involved in pest infestations, necessary for the accurate simulation of infestation dynamics, as observed by the Groupement de Développement Agricole (GDA) of the cru Banyuls et des Albères. Here we attempt to obtain a more accurate simulation of the present situation in the same region, and make projections for the future, by the following actions:1. We refine CeLL simulations by using accurate temperature input data, obtained by spatialising the high temporal frequency data from the TERVICLIM network2. We apply climate change scenario to CeLL, to assess potential effects of climate changes on infestation dynamics and integrated pest management strategies