Study of an emergency situation using 2D and 3D simulation models

Safety in motorway tunnels has become a critical issue in the last years, especially after the accident happened in 1999 inside the Mont Blanc tunnel, causing 39 deaths and several dozens of intoxications and wounded people. After this tragic event, the European Union imposed stricter regulations and procedures for emergency situations inside road tunnels longer than 1000 m. According to this situation, the authors propose the use of M&S (Modeling and Simulation) in order to manage a tunnel evacuation after a fire exploding in consequence to an accident, taking into account a series of significant factors like the road signs position (new criteria have been introduced with new regulation), but also human factors which significantly affect the procedure outcome. First a 2-D simulation model has been developed using Java™ Software, in which the user can analyze the behavior of the people escaping and the dynamics of the fire exploded and, consequently, assess the effectiveness of all the emergency procedures and infrastructures. In particular, regarding the state variables related to the human behavior, the model takes into account the main aspects of PECS (Physical Emotional Cognitive Social) reference models, in which physical, emotional, cognitive and social factors have to be studied. The model presented in this work is in fact quite similar to the one described by (Schmidt, 2000), called “Adam’s World” where Adam, a primitive man, lives in an environment having food sources where he can replenish his energy level, but also traps and danger points to be avoided in order not to consume his energy faster. The aim of the two models is the same: first of all preserve life and health, but the great difference between Schmidt’s model and the authors’ one is that in Adam’s World the social aspect is missing (Adam live alone in his world), while in the evacuation model social aspects can significantly affect the individual’s decisions. Upstream of the evacuation model, a weighted analysis needs to be considered, in fact the individual has to operate different choices considering several aspects, like health or goods preservation, familiar aspects, panic and so on. For this reason a suitable methodology has been detected: the Analytic Hierarchic Process (AHP), implemented by the American mathematician Thomas Saaty, which introduced this technique for Multi-Criteria Analysis. After the considerations on the individuals behavior based on the results of the analysis, the evacuation model and its results are described and analyzed in the following sections and, in the final part of the paper, a description of a 3-D tunnel model devoted to study in particular smoke dynamics is provided, thus it is possible to evaluate the impact of the smoke on the flow of the people escaping from the tunnel