Multiscenario simulation of land use and land cover in the Zhundong mining area, Xinjiang, China

Mining is one kind of activities for human beings to get necessary mineral resources for survival, which also leads to disturbance and damage to local ecosystem. In this paper, the authors analyzed the characteristics of spatio-temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to analyze the comprehensive ecosystem service (CES). Markov chain (MC) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) were used to assess the spatial distribution of LULC change based on two scenarios in 2030, providing a theoretical basis for restoration of eco-environmentin the Zhundong coalfield. The results indicate that the area with the foremost LULC is the conversion from other to grassland, grassland to other, and other to built-up land in the past 20 years. The value of CES declined from 0.5397 (2000) to 0.3937 (2010) over time and then continued to decline to 0.3449 (2020); the change was weaker in the 2010–2020 period than that in the 2000–2010 period. Spatially, the ecosystem degradation of the eastern part of the Jiangjunmiao mining area and the Xiheishan mining area was more serious, while the Wucaiwan mining area was improved, which is mainly due to the contribution of ecological restoration there. In the 2030 the business-as-usual (BUA) scenario, the area of built-up land expansion increases significantly by 95.2 km2, and the value of CES continues to decrease. In the 2030 the ecological development priority (EDP) scenario, the built-up land expansion continues to decrease to 58.32 km2, the area of grassland increases significantly to 18.64 km2, the value of CES continues to decrease, and the overall LULC structure is improved. Results will guide the type of green sustainable exploitation of the Zhundong mining area