PROBABILISTIC DISTRIBUTION OF TAKE-OFF ACCIDENTS AROUND AIRPORTS

Airport is where the aircraft take-off, landing and ground handling operations have place. During the mission of an airplane, these phases cover a very small percentage of time: both take-off and landing last just 1% of the whole flight but, according to available statistical studies, a high proportion of accidents is concentrated in these phases. Accidents occurring in these phases of flight involve not only passengers and crew of the flight but also a vast territory around airports with a large number of residents that, in some cases, have paid a high toll in terms of lives. The correct planning of areas surrounding airports is the main tool in order to safeguard the territory by the risk of accidents. The calculation of individual risk to people in the vicinity of airports originates by the calculation of the probability that crashing aircrafts impact a specified location. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution of take-off accidents around the runway is presented. The curve has been implemented on a data-base of air accidents occurred in the last 15 years all over the world. The proposed distribution is compared with the curves developed by other researchers in the past years