Moisture, Not Temperature, in the Pre-Monsoon Influences Pinus wallichiana Growth along the Altitudinal and Aspect Gradients in the Lower Himalayas of Central Nepal

Changing climate can strongly affect tree growth and forest productivity. The dendrochronological approach to assessing the impact of climate change on tree growth is possible through climate–growth correlation analysis. This study uses an individual tree-based approach to model Pinus wallichiana (P. wallichiana) radial growth response to climate across the physiographic gradients in the lower distributional range of Nepal. This study sampled six sites across the Makwanpur district of central Nepal that varied in elevation and aspect, obtaining 180 tree-ring series. Climate data series were obtained from Climate Research Unit (CRU 4.0). The pair correlation approach was used to assess P. wallichiana growth response to climate and site-level physiographic variables such as site-level environmental stress. The study also determined long-term growth trends across the elevation and aspect gradients. Trees at sites with higher elevation and northeast aspect (NEA) were more responsive to winter and spring precipitation, whereas trees with lower elevation and northwest aspect (NWA) were more responsive to winter and spring precipitation. Basal area increment (BAI) analysis showed the variation of growth at site-level environmental stress, suggesting that the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the lower growth limit of P. wallichiana due to differences in local physiographic conditions