AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC FOR SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECAST OF MALAYSIA LOAD DEMAND

This final year project report presents an approach for short-term load forecast problem, based on fuzzy logic technique. As depicted in Chapter 1, in order for all generating stations to operate at maximum efficiency and minimum operating costs, National Load Dispatch Centre must be able to forecast the load demanded by customers. In addition, based on the literature reviews in Chapter 2, conventional methods have several limitations such as require complex mathematical formulation and very time consuming. Apart from that, there are several factors that affect shortterm load forecast such as time factors and weather conditions. In Chapter 3 of this report, this project proposes a load forecasting method by using fuzzy logic approach, based on similar days to obtain the next day forecasted load. The iuzzyTECH software is used to develop a one-day-ahead load forecasting model together with Microsoft Excel as the data interface. The test results, as shown in Chapter 4, show that the proposed forecasting method could provide a considerable improvement of the forecasting accuracy especially as it shows how to reduce forecast error to below 3%. Several recommendations for future improvements are included in Chapter 5. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data ofthe National Load Dispatch Centre in Bangsar, Kuala Lumpur