Path Planning for Aircraft Under Threat of Detection from Ground-Based Radar with Uncertainty in Aircraft and Radar States

Mission planners for manned and unmanned aircraft operating within the detection range of ground-based radar systems are often concerned with the probability of detection. Several factors influence the probability of detection, including aircraft position and orientation, radar position, and radar performance parameters. Current path planning algorithms assume that these factors are known with certainty, but in practice, these factors are estimated and have some uncertainty. This dissertation explores methods to consider the uncertainty in the detection factors for an aircraft path planner. First, the detection model is extended to include uncertainty in the aircraft position and orientation, radar position, and radar parameters. Second, an efficient method to estimate the aircraft position and orientation uncertainty is presented that enables rapid path evaluation. Third, the extended radar model and efficient aircraft uncertainty calculation are incorporated into a path planner that evaluates the sources of uncertainty and provides actionable information to the mission planner