Modelling infectious disease in threatened wildlife to inform conservation management

Infectious disease can pose a substantial threat to wildlife populations. While pathogens are generally not thought to drive population extinctions, several factors may increase the risks of pathogen-driven extinction. The African wild dog is an endangered species, living primarily in small populations, potentially making them sensitive to pathogen-driven extinction. African wild dogs are a highly social group-living species, meaning pathogens can spread quickly to entire packs. Rabies and canine distemper virus (CDV) pose particular threats to African wild dogs, each having been implicated in the extinction of important populations. The species' complex population dynamics means responses to pathogens are di cult to predict and are not adequately covered by existing population models. A demographic model can therefore be a useful tool for both understanding African wild dog populations and informing conservation. This thesis describes an individual-based model (IBM) of African wild dog population dynamics, and how it can be used to assess the probability of African wild dog populations persisting under di erent conservation management interventions. This IBM was extended to incorporate rabies epidemiology, including spillover from domestic dogs. The coupled African wild dog and domestic dog models show that, while African wild dogs may be protected effectively through vaccination, vaccinating the local domestic dog population is indicated to be a more effective strategy. The IBM was also used to assess the impact of CDV on African wild dog populations, incorporating the uncertainty surrounding CDV epidemiology. The model highlights important knowledge gaps which constrain assessment of the threat posed by CDV and the potential for managing this threat. This thesis demonstrates the value of combining modelling infectious disease with demographic models to inform conservation, in particular in addressing threats posed by rabies and CDV to African wild dog populations. These insights may also be useful in the context of other threatened wildlife host species.Open Acces