Dampak faktor eksternal dan kebijakan terhadap debt service coverge ratio perusahaan batubara

Coal companies that conduct business need to pay attention to changes due to the impact of the domestic and international economy. One of the impacts from the international side is the increasing global awareness to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, however in its development the use of renewable energy sources does not show any indication that dependence on fossil fuels will decline in the near future. China, as a coal importer, experienced a decline in GDP in 2018, the lowest GDP growth for 28 years. The incident was followed by a decline in coal exports, which affected the fluctuations in free cash flow of coal companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2018. When a company faces an unexpected event, it requires additional funds that are used to cover the losses of the previous year, invest, and expand. The use of debt makes it easy to finance all the needs of business activities. Debt companies are required to pay off debts in the coming period. Failing to meet obligations to creditors causes the company to not have financial flexibility. Companies with a debt service coverage ratio value of less than 1.20 do not have financial flexibility. The average value of debt service coverage ratio, coal companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2011-2018 there are companies that have financial flexibility and do not have financial flexibility. Therefore it is necessary to examine the condition of the debt service coverage ratio, external and internal factors that affect the company's performance and its impact on the debt service coverage ratio of coal companies. The objectives of study are to analyse: (1) the condition of debt service coverage ratio of coal companies, (2) factors affected the performance of coal companies, and (3) the impact of external factors and policies on the coal company debt service coverage ratio. The study use panel data consist of four coal companies in the Indonesia Stock Exchange in period 2011-2018, namely PT Adaro Energy Tbk, PT Indika Energy Tbk, PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk, and PT Bayan Resource Tbk. The Debt service coverage ratio model of the coal company was developed as a dynamic recursive equations system consist of 18 equations (7 structural equations and 11 identity equations) and estimated using 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method. The results show that coal companies that have financial flexibility are PT Indika Energi Tbk and PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk with an average DSCR value of 1.37 and 3.15, while PT Adaro Energy Tbk and PT Bayan Resources Tbk do not have financial flexibility with an average DSCR value of 0.94 and 0.49. Export coal volume affected only by last year's export coal volume, while domestic coal volume affected by last year's domestic coal price and last year's domestic coal volume. Earning before interest and tax which is the company's performance in terms of profitability affected only by gross profit, while free cash flow which is the company's performance in terms of liquidity affected by earnings before interest and tax, depreciation, and capital expenditure. Principal payment which is the company's performance in terms of liquidity affected by liabilities and last year’s principal payments and the debt service coverage ratio is the company's performance in terms of solvency affected by last year's interest expense and principal payment ratio. The impact of external factors and policies on coal company’s debt service coverage ratio as follows: (1) in the condition of the decline in China's gross domestic product by 0.1% which the company anticipates by reducing the cost of production, general and administrative expenses, selling and marketing expenses and capital expenditures by 40% respectively will have an impact on increasing the company's financial flexibility of 0.0059% (debt service coverage ratio to 1.6849), (2) if the domestic market obligation imposed by adding to domestic coal market volume a total of 4.5 million tons / year at the prevailing market price at 84 USD/ ton will have an impact on increasing the company's financial flexibility of 1.0031% (debt service coverage ratio to 1.7017), (3) if the domestic market obligation imposed by adding to domestic coal market volume a total of 4.5 million tons / year and domestic coal prices set by the government of 70 USD / ton will have an impact on increasing the company's financial flexibility of 0.3917% (debt service coverage ratio to 1.6914), and (4) if the domestic market obligation imposed by adding to domestic coal market volume a total of 4.5 million tons / year and the company's proposed domestic coal price of 80 USD / ton will have an impact on increasing the company's financial flexibility of 0.7538% (debt service coverage ratio to 1.6975)