Towards spaceborne monitoring of localized CO2 emissions: an instrument concept and first performance assessment

The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) requires the nations of the world to report their carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The independent verification of these reported emissions is a cornerstone for advancing towards the emission accounting and reduction measures agreed upon in the Paris Agreement. In this paper, we present the concept and first performance assessment of a compact spaceborne imaging spectrometer with a spatial resolution of 50 x 50m(2) that could contribute to the "monitoring, verification and reporting" (MVR) of CO2 emissions worldwide. CO2 emissions from medium-sized power plants (1-10 MtCO(2) yr(-1)), currently not targeted by other spaceborne missions, represent a significant part of the global CO2 emission budget. In this paper we show that the proposed instrument concept is able to resolve emission plumes from such localized sources as a first step towards corresponding CO2 flux estimates. Through radiative transfer simulations, including a realistic instrument noise model and a global trial ensemble covering various geophysical scenarios, it is shown that an instrument noise error of 1.1 ppm (1 sigma) can be achieved for the retrieval of the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2). Despite a limited amount of information from a single spectral window and a relatively coarse spectral resolution, scattering by atmospheric aerosol and cirrus can be partly accounted for in the XCO2 retrieval, with deviations of at most 4.0 ppm from the true abundance for two-thirds of the scenes in the global trial ensemble. We further simulate the ability of the proposed instrument concept to observe CO2 plumes from single power plants in an urban area using high-resolution CO2 emission and surface albedo data for the city of Indianapolis. Given the preliminary instrument design and the corresponding instrument noise error, emission plumes from point sources with an emission rate down to the order of 0.3 MtCO(2) yr(-1) can be resolved, i.e., well below the target source strength of 1 MtCO(2) yr(-1). This leaves a significant margin for additional error sources, like scattering particles and complex meteorology, and shows the potential for subsequent CO2 flux estimates with the proposed instrument concept