The The Resource Curse in Timor-Leste

After Timor-Leste restored independence in 2002, the new nation established a rigorous system to manage oil and gas revenues and activities, based on international best practice. Policymakers hoped that it would protect the small nation from the ‘resource curse’ which afflicts countries that depend on exporting non-renewable wealth. Within five years, petroleum exports were financing 85% of the state budget and comprised 75% of GDP. By 2021, with its known oil and gas reserves nearly depleted, Timor-Leste has made little progress toward diversifying into a sustainable economy or alleviating poverty and malnutrition. This paper explores what happened, and try to explain why well-intentioned legal and structural measures were not sufficient to avert the ‘paradox of plenty.