Zabrinjava me budućnost i razmišljam o odlasku: usporedba migracijskih aspiracija mladih iz Hrvatske i jugoistočne Europe

IN CROATIAN: Rad se bavi utjecajem sociodemografskih i društvenih faktora na migracijske aspiracije mladih u Hrvatskoj u 2012. i 2018. godini te komparacijom migracijskih aspiracija mladih iz Hrvatske s migracijskim aspiracijama mladih u 2018. godini iz 9 zemalja jugoistočne Europe (Albanija, Bosna i Hercegovina, Bugarska, Crna Gora, Kosovo, Rumunjska, Sjeverna Makedonija, Slovenija i Srbija). Prezentirani nalazi rezultat su projekta koje je provela Zaklada Friedrich Ebert u navedenim zemljama. Regresijskim modelom na uzorku mladih u 2012. u Hrvatskoj pokazano je da su pojedine sociodemografske karakteristike (dob, obrazovanje, tip naselja te planiranje izvanbračne veze) najvažniji prediktori migracijskih aspiracija. U 2018. godini uz dob, migracijske aspiracije iskazuju ispitanici prema svim stupnjevima obrazovanja te mladi iz manjih gradova. Stavovi mladih prema budućnosti Hrvatske relativno su konzistentni; pokazuje se da su 2012. odlasku bili najskloniji oni koji su gospodarsku situaciju u Hrvatsku vidjeli jednakom ili lošijom, dok su u 2018. godini aspiracije pokazivali mladi koji su budućnost hrvatskog društva percipirali lošijom. Nezadovoljstvo stanjem demokracije u 2018. bilo je statistički značajno. Ukupno gledano, mladi iz svih zemalja jugoistočne Europe dominantno iskazuju migracijske aspiracije zbog želje za poboljšanjem životnog standarda, viših plaća i boljih mogućnosti zapošljavanja, što je osobito prisutno u Bosni i Hercegovini, Rumunjskoj i Sjevernoj Makedoniji. Bolje obrazovanje u znatno manjoj mjeri glavni je motiv za preseljenje u drugu zemlju . U regresijskom modelu najkonzistentnijim prediktorom pokazao se pogled na budućnost društva uz ostale prediktore koji se razlikuju s obzirom na analizirane zemlje.--------------- IN ENGLISH: The paper deals with the influence of individual and contextual factors on the emigration aspirations of young people in Croatia, and with a comparison of the emigration aspirations of young people from Croatia in 2018 with young people from nine European Central and Eastern countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo, Romania, North Macedonia, Slovenia and Serbia). The insights presented in the paper are the result of a project carried out by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in the mentioned countries. A comparison of emigration aspirations in 2018 suggests that young people from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia show lower aspirations than young people from countries that are not members of the European Union: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. The applied regression model on the sample of young in 2012 in Croatia points that certain sociodemographic characteristics (age, education, type of settlement and planning extramarital relationship) are the most important predictors of migration aspirations. In 2018, in addition to age, migration aspirations were expressed by respondents according to all levels of education and young people from smaller towns. Young people’s attitudes towards the future of Croatia are relatively consistent; it shows that in 2012 those who saw the economic situation in Croatia as the same or worse were the most inclined to leave, while in 2018 aspirations were shown by young people who perceived the future of Croatian society to be worse. Dissatisfaction with the state of democracy was statistically significant in 2018. In general, young people from all countries of Southeast Europe dominantly express migration aspirations due to the desire to improve living standards, higher wages and better employment opportunities, which is especially present in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and North Macedonia. To a much lesser extent, the main motive for moving to another country is better education. In the regression model, the view on the future of society was the most consistent predictor, along with other predictors that differ according to the analyzed countries