Probabilistic decline curve analysis with multiple models

Numerical models have been established to help understand the longevity of projects when exploring and drilling for hydrocarbons. They aid in understanding and optimizing decisions on the long-term feasibility of a project by using existing data to run simulations and estimate how long a supply can be sustained before its depletion. This thesis aims to explore and evaluate how different models compare to one another, how each model varies against the other, and ultimately decide how to better optimize production forecasts. It also investigates two approaches to the problem namely deterministic and probabilistic. As petroleum production has increased, there has been a need for companies to meet demands and that requires more accurate methods for reservoir evaluation and forecasting. Numerical models can help in this case but which model to choose and to what extent can they be relied upon are uncertain factors. This thesis aims to answer that question. The challenge in this thesis is comparing probabilistic and deterministic approaches which has not been done in other research before using real field data