Deep reinforcement learning for predictive aircraft maintenance using probabilistic Remaining-Useful-Life prognostics

The increasing availability of sensor monitoring data has stimulated the development of Remaining-Useful-Life (RUL) prognostics and maintenance planning models. However, existing studies focus either on RUL prognostics only, or propose maintenance planning based on simple assumptions about degradation trends. We propose a framework to integrate data-driven probabilistic RUL prognostics into predictive maintenance planning. We estimate the distribution of RUL using Convolutional Neural Networks with Monte Carlo dropout. These prognostics are updated over time, as more measurements become available. We further pose the maintenance planning problem as a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) problem where maintenance actions are triggered based on the estimates of the RUL distribution. We illustrate our framework for the maintenance of aircraft turbofan engines. Using our DRL approach, the total maintenance cost is reduced by 29.3% compared to the case when engines are replaced at the mean-estimated-RUL. In addition, 95.6% of unscheduled maintenance is prevented, and the wasted life of the engines is limited to only 12.81 cycles. Overall, we propose a roadmap for predictive maintenance from sensor measurements to data-driven probabilistic RUL prognostics, to maintenance planning.Air Transport & Operation