Contributions of Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers to Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in the Mongolian Plateau

Global warming and intense human activity are altering the net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions where vegetation ecosystems are sensitive to climate change, including the Mongolian Plateau (MP). To deepen the understanding of the dynamics of vegetation and its driving factors on the MP, the actual NPP (ANPP) of the MP from 2000 to 2019 was estimated based on a modified Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA) model. The Thornthwaite Memorial and Guangsheng Zhou models were applied concurrently to estimate the potential NPP of the vegetation, and different scenarios were constructed to evaluate quantitatively the impact of climate change and human activity on the vegetation productivity of our study area. The results showed that the carbon sequestration capacities of various vegetation types in the MP differ, with forest > cropland > grassland > wetland. The NPP increased significantly during 2000–2019. Most areas showed a continuous and stable change in vegetation ANPP, with the current trend in variation mainly reflected in the continuous improvement of vegetation. In general, restoration of vegetation was prominent in the MP, and human activities affected more than 30% of vegetation restoration. The ANPP was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation, the latter of which had a more significant effect. Desertification management, restoration of cropland to forest and grassland, afforestation and reasonable grazing activities were the main human activities performed to restore vegetation. This study is expected to advance the theoretical understanding of ecological protection and sustainable development in the MP