RURALIZATION Project. The opening of rural areas to renew rural generations, jobs and farms. D4.2 Trend analysis: summary report and trend database

This report is a documentation for an extensive trend identification and assessment processwhich was carried out by the RURAZATION team. A large diversity of trends was identified inEuropean research reports, scientific journals, futures literature as well as in national sourcesto avoid the language bias. The approach of the trend analysis was exploratory, notconfirmatory or normative. The list of 1,560 trend observations is neither exhaustive norrepresentative and fully balanced as there is no theory of the future that would guide us topick up the ‘correct’ trends. Each trend has both positive and negative impacts on specificareas, sectors or actors and observing this diversity is important for understanding theemergence and evolution of alternative futures. The general perspective on the trend analysishas been rural regeneration: what kinds of force fields and developments could shape thefutures of rural Europe?Each of the trend observations was assessed by the observer – supported by the source of thetrend – for its impacts on different types of rural areas (rural areas within functional urbanareas, rural areas in urban proximity and remote rural areas), gender, social capital, migration,access to land, farm structures and farming prospects. Also the drivers of the trends wereidentified. This process provided a good understanding of the diversity of the impacts of thetrends in various contexts.In order to make the results more user-friendly, the findings were synthesised in 60 trendcards. These cards feature the contents, drivers and impacts of 10 megatrends, 20 trends and30 weak signals which could play in the rural regeneration. Obviously, there is no single silverbullet trend that would bring about the desired outcomes for all regions. Rather, hopefullyeach region, economic sector, policy field, business, decision-maker or citizen could find outthe way to benefit from (some of) the trends in specific contexts. This is the role in which thetrends cards are meant to serve and in the next steps of the RURALIZATION project this aspectwill be assessed in various interactive engagements.