Predictive formulas for different measures of cheese yield using milk composition from individual goat samples

The objective of this study was to develop formulas based on milk composition of individual goat samples for predicting cheese yield (%CY) traits (fresh curd, milk solids, and water retained in the curd). The specific aims were to assess and quantify (1) the contribution of major milk components (fat, protein, and casein) and udder health indicators (lactose, somatic cell count, pH, and bacterial count) on %CY traits (fresh curd, milk solids, and water retained in the curd); (2) the cheese-making method; and (3) goat breed effects on prediction accuracy of the %CY formulas. The %CY traits were analyzed in duplicate from 600 goats, using an individual laboratory cheese-making procedure (9-MilCA method; 9 mL of milk per observation) for a total of 1,200 observations. Goats were reared in 36 herds and belonged to 6 breeds (Saanen, Murciano-Granadina, Camosciata delle Alpi, Maltese, Sarda, and Sarda Primitiva). Fresh %CY (%CYCURD), total solids (%CYSOLIDS), and water retained (%CYWATER) in the curd were used as response variables. Single and multiple linear regression models were tested via different combinations of standard milk components (fat, protein, casein) and indirect udder health indicators (UHI; lactose, somatic cell count, pH, and bacterial count). The 2 %CY observations within animal were averaged, and a cross-validation (CrV) scheme was adopted, in which 80% of observations were randomly assigned to the calibration (CAL) set and 20% to the validation (VAL) set. The procedure was repeated 10 times to account for sampling variability. Further, the model presenting the best prediction accuracy in CrV (i.e., comprehensive formula) was used in a secondary analysis to assess the accuracy of the %CY predictive formulas as part of the laboratory cheese-making procedure (within-animal validation, WAV), in which the first %CY observation within animal was assigned to CAL, and the second to the VAL set. Finally, a stratified CrV (SCrV) was adopted to assess the %CY traits prediction accuracy across goat breeds, again using the best model, in which 5 breeds were included in CAL and the remaining one in the VAL set. Fitting statistics of the formulas were assessed by coefficient of determination of validation (R2VAL) and the root mean square error of validation (RMSEVAL). In CrV, the formula with the best prediction accuracy for all %CY traits included fat, casein, and UHI (R2VAL = 0.65, 0.96, and 0.23 for %CYCURD, %CYSOLIDS, and %CYWATER, respectively). The WAV procedure showed R2VAL higher than those obtained in CrV, evidencing a low effect of the 9-MilCA method and, indirectly, its high repeatability. In the SCrV, large differences for %CYCURD and %CYWATER among breeds evidenced that the breed is a fundamental factor to consider in %CY predictive formulas. These results may be useful to monitor milk composition and quantify the influence of milk traits in the composite selection indices of specific breeds, and for the direct genetic improvement of cheese production