Predictive performance of NMMs with different architectures.

ROC AUC values are averaged across 200 80–20 data splits. Error bars indicate the standard error across these splits. NMM, Nonlinear Multi-year Model with the architecture shown in Fig 1; NMM (3-layer), Nonlinear Multi-year Model with a three-layer architecture; NMM (Optimized), Nonlinear Multi-year Model with optimized architectures for each test set. Details of NMM (3-layer) and NMM(optimized) can be found in S1 Text. (PDF)