Farmers’ perceptions of climate change, long-term variability and trends in rainfall in Apac district, northern Uganda

Abstract Background Climate change poses severe threats to smallholder farmers' agricultural livelihoods and food security in Sub Saharan Africa. Understanding long-term rainfall trends of variability and extremes at local scales and perceptions regarding long-term changes in climate variables is important in planning appropriate adaptation measures to climate change. This paper examines the perception of farmers in Apac district regarding long-term changes in climate variables and analyzes the trend of occurrence in seasonal and annual rainfall in Apac district, northern Uganda. A cross-sectional survey design was employed to collect data on farmers' perceptions regarding long-term changes in climate from 260 randomly selected smallholder farmers’ households across two sub-counties in Apac district by administering semi-structured questionnaires in February 2018. Monthly rainfall data sets from the Uganda Meteorological Authority (UMA) for the period 1980 to 2019 for Apac district were also used to analyze trends of occurrences in seasonal and annual rainfall in the study area. The non-parametric Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests were employed at a 5% significance level to detect mean seasonal rainfall trends and abrupt change points. Results The majority of the respondents (87%) perceived a decrease in precipitation over the past 39 years. The plot of forward regression u(t i ) values and backward regression u’(t i ) values showed interactions indicating rainfall trends, rainfall lower and upper limits and abrupt change points in the different cropping seasons. Analysis of historical series of mean monthly and annual rainfall showed an abrupt change in rainfall in March, April, May (MAM) season in 1982. Although the September, October and November (SON) season did not show a significant abrupt change, there was a significant (p < 0.05) increase in rainfall above the upper limit from 1994 to date. Conclusion The mean seasonal rainfall for MAM and SON cropping seasons in Apac district were highly variable from different time points within the past 39 years (1980–2019), while June, July, and August (JJA) did not realize a significant change in rainfall within the same study period that the two cropping seasons (MAM and SON) in the district experienced remarkable variations in rainfall. This, therefore, provides a basis for the government to strengthen the provision of an effective climate tailored agricultural advisory service to aid farmers’ adaptation planning at the local level and to assist smallholder farmers and land-use managers in developing effective adaptation management strategies to the effects of climate change