Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Epidemic Model on the Spread of Tuberculosis Disease in Central Java

Background: In order to understand tuberculosis (TB) trends, the epidemiologist need to focus on the long-term consequences of tuberculosis epidemics, which can be observed with the analysis of epidemiological models. Susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR) model is an epidemiological models consist of compartments which represent sets of individuals grouped by TB status. This study aimed to examined SIR model on the spread of TB disease. Subjects and Method: This was a cross sectional study. The study population was tuberculosis patients in Central Java, Indonesia, from 2018 to 2019. The study involved three sub-populations, included (1) suspected (high risk infected to TB), (2) infected (TB patients), (3) cured (TB survivors). TB cases were obtained from medical record. The data were analyzed by susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR) model. Results: The epidemic model found that an infected TB patient may disseminate TB cases to 2 suspected persons. SIR model can be used to calculate reproduction number of TB. Conclusion: SIR model can be used to calculate reproduction number of TB. Keywords: tuberculosis, SIR model, COVID-19 Correspondence: Muhammad Faudzi Bahari. Mathematic Department, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Muhammadiyah Kudus. Jl. Ganesha Raya No.I, Purwosari, Kudus, Central Java. Email: muhammadfaudzi@umkudus.ac.id. Mobile: +6281218382619