The Impact Of Climatic Changes On Eucalyptus Productivity In Northern Espirito Santo And Southern Bahia

Cen\ue1rios de mudan\ue7as clim\ue1ticas associados a modelos de crescimento baseados em processos podem ser \ufateis para identificar os riscos da produtividade futura de florestas plantadas, podendo ser utilizados para mitigar os impactos das mudan\ue7as clim\ue1ticas e avaliar meios de adapta\ue7\ue3o. Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar os impactos das mudan\ue7as clim\ue1ticas na produtividade futura do eucalipto na regi\ue3o norte do Esp\uedrito Santo e sul da Bahia. Os dados de entrada de clima utilizados no modelo de crescimento 3-PG foram dois cen\ue1rios de mudan\ue7as clim\ue1ticas (A2 e B2) do modelo global CCSR/NIES, para tr\ueas per\uedodos futuros: 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100. As mudan\ue7as futuras no clima provocaram decr\ue9scimos na produtividade de eucalipto, chegando apresentar uma redu\ue7\ue3o de at\ue9 40% no cen\ue1rio A2 para o per\uedodo de 2071-2100 e 24% para o cen\ue1rio B2. Apesar dos modelos globais convergirem para uma tend\ueancia de aumento da temperatura, h\ue1 ainda incerteza com rela\ue7\ue3o \ue0s poss\uedveis mudan\ue7as na precipita\ue7\ue3o e quanto \ue0s modifica\ue7\uf5es na frequ\ueancia de extremos clim\ue1ticos, n\ue3o sendo poss\uedvel prever a verdadeira magnitude das perdas de produtividade do eucalipto.Scenarios of climatic change linked to growth models based on ecophysiological processes may be useful to identify risks of serious consequence on the yield of planted forests, presenting the possibility to lessen the gravity of climatic change impacts and also to assess means of adaptation. The main objective of this paper is to analyze climatic change impacts on eucalyptus yield in Northern of Espirito Santo and Southern Bahia. The climate input data used in the 3-PG growth model were from two scenarios of climatic change (A2 and B2) from global model CCSR/NIES, for three periods of time: 2011 -2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. It was found that future climatic changes are most likely to decrease the eucalyptus yield, reaching a 40% reduction in scenario A2 for the 2071-2100 period and 24% for scenario B2. In spite of global models converging on the possible incremental temperatures, there is still skepticism about the change in precipitation, as well as the change in the frequency of climatic extremes, making it impossible to predict the true magnitude of eucalyptus yield losses