Green energy transformation and metals markets

Če želimo minimizirati škodo iz podnebnih sprememb, je ključno, da dvig globalne temperature omejimo pod 2 °C v primerjavi s predindustrijsko dobo. Glavni krivec antropogenega segrevanja ozračja je energetski sektor, zaradi česar igra prehod k nizkoogljičnim virom pridobivanja energije osrednjo vlogo v zeleni tranziciji. Solarne in vetrne elektrarne, električna vozila, baterije in električna omrežja temeljijo na izrazito mineralno intenzivnih tehnologijah, kar pomeni, da bo uspešen zeleni energetski prehod zahteval ogromno povečanje povpraševanja po nekaterih kovinah, kot so baker, litij, nikelj in kobalt. Problematika pri tem je, da so trgi kovin nepopolni. Nahajališča rud so pogosto koncentrirana v slabo upravljanih državah, časi do vzpostavitve nove proizvodnje so dolgi, koncentracija proizvodnje pa je tako po državah kot po podjetjih velika tudi v fazah prečiščevanja kovin. Posledični morebitni deficiti na trgih kovin bi lahko zakasnili zeleni prehod, hkrati pa povzročili geopolitične pretrese. Države, ki ne bodo uspele zagotoviti dovoljšne oskrbe s kritičnimi minerali, dovoljšnega obsega domačih predelovalnih zmogljivosti in zadostne proizvodnje zelenih tehnologij, bi lahko postale nekonkurenčne. Tveganja za Evropsko unijo so velika. Res je, da bi uspešen zeleni energetski prehod lahko zmanjšal njeno izpostavljenost uvozu ruskih energentov, vendar je hkrati Evropska unija močno odvisna od uvoza kovin, ki so potrebne za zeleni prehod. Pri tem obstaja nevarnost, da bi se Evropska unija v prihodnosti pretirano izpostavila svoji strateški tekmici Kitajski, ki večinoma dominira v vseh fazah verig vrednosti zelenih tehnologij.If we want to reduce the damage caused by climate change, it is crucial that we limit the rise in global temperature to 2 °C compared to the pre-industrial era. The main culprit of anthropogenic global warming is the energy sector which is why the transition to low-carbon energy sources plays a central role in the green transition. Solar and wind farms, electric vehicles, batteries and the power grid are all based on highly mineral-intensive technologies, which means that a successful green energy transition will cause a huge increase in demand for certain metals such as copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt. The problem with this is that metal markets are imperfect. Ore deposits are often concentrated in poorly managed countries, lead times to start a new production are long, and the concentration of production both by country and by company is high even in the stages of metal refining. The resulting potential deficits in the metal markets could delay the green transition and at the same time cause geopolitical turmoil. Countries that fail to secure a sufficient supply of critical minerals, a sufficient scale of domestic processing capacity and sufficient production of green technologies could become uncompetitive. The risks for the European Union are high. It is true that a successful green energy transition could reduce its exposure to imports of Russian energy products, but at the same time the European Union is heavily dependent on metal imports, which are necessary for the green transition. There is a danger that in the future the European Union would excessively expose itself to its strategic competitor - China, which mostly dominates all stages of the value chain of green technologies