National Inter-religious Councils and Electoral Violence Restraint in Africa

A handful of studies have shown that National Inter-religious Councils (NIRCs) contribute to electoral violence prevention. However, no quantitative study has evaluated the impact of their interventions and the conditions under which they lower electoral violence. Using data on African national elections from 1992-2019, I examine whether NIRCs' electoral-related peacebuilding interventions lower the severity of electoral violence and if their ability to do so depends on NIRCs' social power. The results in this thesis indicate that the presence of NIRCs' interventions during electoral rounds lowers the likelihood of severe electoral violence. The findings also reveal a significant disordinal interaction between NIRCs' interventions and their power, where the predicted probability of severe electoral violence reduces by 42% when powerful NIRCs implement peacebuilding interventions and, on the other hand, increases by 20% when less powerful NIRCs intervene. While this thesis fails to explain the disordinal interaction effect, it details this study's methodological tools and limitations and contributes an original dataset of NIRCs' interventions and power for future research