Estimating risk and cost: An analysis of patients with risk factors for Type 2 Diabetes in rural Jalisco, Mexico

The global age standardized prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has doubled (4.7% to 8.5%) over the last three decades and is increasing more rapidly in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). The global economic burden of diabetes affects individuals and health care systems and is estimated to cost $825 billion USD a year. Within Mexico, T2DM is the second leading cause of mortality and the leading cause of morbidity using disability associated life years (DALYs). A retrospective chart review and cost analysis, analyzing those at risk of diabetes, was conducted at a rural community health clinic in Jalisco, Mexico. The goal was to project the cost of providing an appropriate scope of care and plan prevention-based population health programs. The results demonstrated that out of 264 charts reviewed, 218 (83%) had one or more diabetic risk factor. The estimated per patient per visit cost is $127.22 MP (Mexican Peso, 2018) and as the number of diabetes risk factors increases for an individual patient, the mean cost of their care to the system increases (p < .001). Those with at least one risk factor comprise the majority in both males and females with a median age of 36 and median BMI of 28, and this group also has the highest percentage of borderline hypertension (46%). This data demonstrates an opportunity to intervene in a group of young adults (ages 27-46) with a cluster of high-risk borderline risk factors and preventing them from developing obesity, hypertension and diabetes later in life