Burn Probability and Climate Change: A Quantitative Evaluation of the Temporal Alterations of Wildfire

The intensity of extreme weather events, specifically wildfires, along the West Coast has slowly grown overtime due to atmospheric changes caused by climate change. The Air Force, though aware of the threat that is wildfire, does not currently have a quantitative way to assess the hazard to base locations. In this paper, burn probability is quantitatively calculated through the geospatial analysis programs to provide a means of assessing wildfire vulnerability. The FlamMap fire simulator generated burn probabilities for Vandenberg Air Force Base using climate data generated by the remote automated weather station on the base to highlight how the burn probability has changed over time. The USGS data (Elevation, Vegetation, etc.) utilized in the model comes from the LANDFIRE Project. Results showed an increase in burn probability over time, but in consistent overall trends. A closer look at the odd spike for the year 2009 showed that drought heavily impacted the burn probability. Further development of this framework should provide a valuable a tool to identify strategic plans for construction that align with land and missions resource objectives