Many city public authorities have implemented measures to alleviate the negative effects of freight transport in urban areas, but these have often proved ineffective. The literature contains studies related to ex-post assessment of urban freight transport policies. This paper proposes a methodology for ex-ante assessment of their effects. The focus is the assessment of pollutant emissions. The application of the methodology to the inner urban area of Rome shows that an urban distribution centre can be more effective in reducing environmental externalities than policies based on vehicle fleet renewal. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved