Determinants of Brazilian automobile sector demand: an empirical analysis

This work used ARDL models to analyze the demand for vehicles from Brazil between January/2012 and December/2019. The results indicate that exchange rate devaluations, reductions in IPI and increases in GDP, credit supply (for vehicular acquisition), Brazil’s risk and consumer confidence would stimulate demand. Alternatively, increases in interest rates, new and used vehicle prices and fuel costs would tend to decrease. It is believed that: a) the demand for popular vehicles is more sensitive to prices; b) Ford has differentiated customers; c) vehicle autonomy is relevant in the face of fuel fluctuations; d) vehicle’s manufacturers with their own banks/finance are less affected by interest rate; e) Toyota’s security encourages sales in times of uncertainty. Furthermore, the behavior of customers from “GM, Fiat, Toyota and Peugeot-Citroën” proved to be quite similar, while those from “Volkswagen and Nissan”, “Honda and CAOA” and “Ford and Hyundai” were considerably different.Este trabalho usou modelos ARDL para analisar a demanda por veículos no Brasil entre janeiro/2012 e dezembro/2019. Os resultados indicam que desvalorizações cambiais, reduções no IPI e aumentos no PIB, na oferta de crédito (para aquisição veicular), no risco-Brasil e na confiança do consumidor estimulariam a demanda. Alternativamente, aumentos nos juros, nos preços de veículos novos e usados e no custo dos combustíveis tenderiam a diminuí-la. Acredita-se que: a) a demanda por veículos populares seja mais sensível aos preços; b) os clientes da Ford possuam preferências distintas; c) combustíveis mais caros estimulem a procura por maior autonomia veicular; d) as marcas com linhas próprias de crédito dependam menos dos juros; e) a Toyota atraia clientes em momentos de incerteza. Ademais, notou-se similaridade entre os consumidores da GM, Fiat, Toyota e Peugeot-Citroën e discrepância entre os da Volkswagen e Nissan, Honda e CAOA e Ford e Hyundai