Моделирование протестных технологий в системе медиакоммуникационной зависимости

The article exposes the structural influences of the system of media communication dependence of the population on the frequency, intensity and duration of protests in Asian and African countries. The problem is multilevel: the influence occurs both at the international and national levels, as well as within the boundaries of cultural areas. The issue is examined through the prism of how protest models and technologies are constructed and structured in the context of the influence of the media-communication system. A number of individual models fall under special scrutiny: that of dispersed protest networks, «leaderless protest», «one-time (disposable) leadership» and youth («child») protest. The results of their implementation are considered and disputed. Underestimation of the organizing and guiding role of media as a tool for managing protests is still widespread in political discourse. Its belittling is explained by the fact that the protests are often based on objectively existing reasons. From this, despite the abundance of well-known opposite examples, an often erroneous conclusion is made that the protests have nothing to do with external forces. However, the fact that under similar objective conditions, protests in some cases are quickly quelled and forgotten, but in are protracted and intensified, proves that objectivity of causes is not the decisive factor. Contrastingly, the media dependency of the targeted audience may become a crucial factor in the management of protests and even for the regime change irrespective of the level of the “objectivity” of grievances.Статья посвящена анализу структурного влияния системы медиакоммуникационной зависимости населения на частоту, интенсивность и продолжительность протестных выступлений в странах Азии и Африки. Проблема имеет многоуровневый характер - влияние происходит как на международном (глобальном), так и национальном уровнях, а также в границах цивилизационно-культурных ареалов. Этот вопрос рассматривается сквозь призму того, как в условиях влияния медиакоммуникационной системы выстраиваются модели и технологии протеста. Рассмотрены модели рассеянных протестных сетей, «безлидерного протеста», «одноразового лидерства» и молодежного («детского») протеста и результатов их использования