Sparse Bayesian Graphical VAR for Risk Analysis

This paper considers a sparsity approach for inference in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The approach is based on a Bayesian procedure and a graphical representation of VAR models. We discuss a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for sparse graph selection, parameter estimation, and equation-specific lag selection. We show the efficiency of our algorithm on simulated data and illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in measuring contagion risk among financial institutions