Modeling the Territorial Structure Dynamics of the Northern Part of the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain

The subject of our study is the tendency to reduce the floodplain area of regulated rivers and its impact on the degradation of the socio-environmental systems in the floodplain. The aim of the work is to create a new approach to the analysis and forecasting of the multidimensional degradation processes of floodplain territories under the influence of natural and technogenic factors. This approach uses methods of hydrodynamic and geoinformation modeling, statistical analysis of observational data and results of high-performance computational experiments. The basis of our approach is the dynamics model of the complex structure of the floodplain. This structure combines the characteristics of the frequency ranges of flooding and the socio-environmental features of various sites (cadastral data of land use). Modeling of the hydrological regime is based on numerical shallow water models. The regression model of the technogenic dynamics of the riverbed allowed us to calculate corrections to the parameters of real floods that imitate the effect of this factor. This made it possible to use digital maps of the modern topography for hydrodynamic modeling and the construction of floods maps for past and future decades. The technological basis of our study is a set of algorithms and software, consisting of three modules. The data module includes, first of all, the cadastres of the territory of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain (VAF, this floodplain is the interfluve of the Volga and Akhtuba rivers for the last 400 km before flowing into the Caspian Sea), satellite and natural observation data, spatial distributions of parameters of geoinformation and hydrodynamic models. The second module provides the construction of a multilayer digital model of the floodplain area, digital maps of floods and their aggregated characteristics. The third module calculates a complex territorial structure, criteria for the state of the environmental and socio-economic system (ESES) and a forecast of its changes. We have shown that the degradation of the ESES of the northern part of the VAF is caused by the negative dynamics of the hydrological structure of its territory, due to the technogenic influence the hydroelectric power station on the Volga riverbed. This dynamic manifests itself in a decrease in the stable flooded area and an increase in the unflooded and unstable flooded areas. An important result is the forecast of the complex territorial structure and criteria for the state of the interfluve until 2050