Investigating fashion forecasting approaches in South Africa : proposed way forward

M.TechThis study is an investigation into current local and international fashion forecasting approaches and procedures, as well as to discover whether intuition has relevance in the forecasting process. South African fashion is currently in the process of transformation; discovering and establishing a fashion identity, after decades of unquestioningly following international fashion trends (Chang, 2005:20; Cohen, 2005:27; Levin, 2005a: 75-78). The emergence of local fashion/trend forecasting practices in recent years is part of this transformation process. An underlying assumption of this study is that South African fashion will continue to develop, resulting in an increasing demand for fashion forecasting in the country. As there are currently no guidelines available, the study aims to provide insight into a way forward for this practice in South Africa. The study is grounded within a qualitative research paradigm, and the research design and data collection methods have accordingly been selected. The chosen research design falls largely within the framework of an ethnographic study. A comprehensive analysis of existing literature was conducted in order to provide a theoretical grounding to the study and to acquire a global perspective on forecasting procedures. This was followed by semi-structured interviews to obtain primary data from a South African perspective. The participants were purposely selected according to set criteria. The first criteria for selection required the participants to be leading role-players in their particular fields. Secondly, individuals who are trend forecasters by profession, as well as those who may use forecasting material in their businesses. Thirdly, the sample of participants represents specified sectors within the South African fashion/lifestyle industries. Namely, editors at leading trend magazines, in-house trend forecasters/analysts at leading fashion retailers, designers and independent trend analysts/forecasters. In order to construct the findings of the study qualitative content analysis was used as the method for data analysis. Through this process, the descriptions of the participants were interpreted to establish commonalities in practice, so as to identify viable threads of relevance regarding trend forecasting within a South African context. The research findings narrate the participants’ experiences within the field of trend/fashion forecasting, their knowledge frameworks being key to the study (Henning, van Rensburg & Smit, 2004:19). It is evident from the findings that the practice of fashion forecasting in South Africa is at an early stage of development and therefore at present, limited procedural IV structures seem to be in place. The findings further indicate that intuition indeed plays a significant role in the forecasting process, and is often associated with insightful trend/fashion forecasting. South African fashion, although facing several challenges, is perceived to have enormous potential for growth and to be a successful international marketing commodity in the future. In order for the practice of fashion forecasting to be successful in the country, though, it needs to be approached with insight and integrity, and with a true intention to add value