A multiple scenario analysis into the potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa

M.Sc.Biofuels have the potential to reduce a country’s dependence on imported oil, to ensure diversity of energy sources, to increase the availability of renewable energy sources and to address global environmental issues. In recognition of the potential benefits of the production and use of biofuels, the Department of Minerals and Energy released the Draft Biofuels Industrial Strategy in December 2006 with the aim to increase the use of biofuels in South Africa to replace 4.5% of conventional transport fuels by 2013. However, there are several barriers that need to be overcome before South Africa can establish a large-scale biofuel industry to achieve the DME’s biofuel target. This includes environmental barriers, such as the availability of land for the cultivation of biofuel feedstocks and potential threats to food security. This study focuses on these environmental barriers and aims to determine the potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa to 2013. To this purpose, a bioethanol potential model is developed to simulate the potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa between 2008 and 2013. The model incorporates four key elements that all impact on the availability of maize for bioethanol production, namely: maize demand; maize supply; the demand for maize as biomaterial; and the available land area for the cultivation of maize. The study makes further use of the scenario planning method to determine the potential for bioethanol production from maize in South Africa. Four unique bioethanol potential scenarios are designed and simulated within the bioethanol potential model developed for this purpose. Each scenario plays out a differentstoryline for the future social, economic and natural environment that will impact on the availability of maize for bioethanol production. The results of the bioethanol potential scenario simulations show that South Africa will be able to produce enough maize to meet the DME’s biofuel target of 1.2 billion liters of bioethanol for all scenarios between 2009 and 2010. From 2011 onwards, the bioethanol potential decreases below the DME’s target value in both the worst case and rapid change scenarios. The study concludes that the production of bioethanol from maize in South Africa will have various social, economic and environmental consequences for the country’s agricultural sector. The depletion of domestic maize supplies will seriously threaten food security and consequently, increase the country’s dependence on maize imports. This will not only affect the country’s maize producing regions, but spread throughout South Africa as the demand for agriculturally productive land for maize production increases. Domestic food security is therefore at risk and South Africa will have to resort to other energy technologies to achieve a sustainable and renewable energy future for road transport