Impacts of primary energy constraints in the 21st century

D.Phil.Global society has evolved into a complex multi-dimensional system in which it has become increasingly difficult to construct and maintain a systemic model of cause and effect. Specialisation and abstraction in the various disciplines of scientific and societal complexity has led to divergent theories of sustainability. Failure to integrate real life problems across disciplines poses a threat to modern society because the causal links between disciplines are unattended in many instances and events in one dimension could lead to catastrophic unintended consequences in another. In light of the above, this thesis contributes towards the multi-disciplinary integration of some of the most important sustainability concerns of modern society, namely Energy Security, Economic Growth and Global Warming. Analysing these real-life sustainability issues in a multi-disciplinary context leads to conclusions that are controversial in terms of established philosophical worldviews and policy trends. Firstly, the thesis establishes deterministic expectations of an imminent era of declining Energy Security resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable fossil fuel resources, despite optimistic expectations of technology improvements in alternative energy sources such as renewable and nuclear. Secondly, the exhaustion of non-renewable fossil fuel resources imposes limits to the potential sources of anthropogenic carbon emissions that render the more pessimistic emissions cases considered in the global warming debate irrelevant. The lower level of attainable carbon emissions challenges the merits of the conventional carbon feedback cycle with the result that the predicted global warming is within acceptance limits of the contemporary global warming debate. Thirdly, the consequences of declining Energy Security on socio-economic welfare is a severe divergence from historical trends and demands the reassertion of the role of energy in human development, including Economic Growth theory. The thesis develops a novel economic growth model that treats energy as an explicit and Autonomous Factor of Production, thereby facilitating plausible predictions of future Economic Growth potential. The results challenge the sustainability of the current free-market capitalist economic system and demand strong policy responses to avoid the collapse of modern society