End-user development for interactive data analytics: Uncertainty, correlation and user confidence

This paper investigates End-User Development (EUD) for interactive data-analytic interfaces—building upon the ideas of making machine learning transparent. The research is carried out in a business operation environment (water pipe failure prediction in our case) motivated to integrate advanced analytics into decision-making processes of an urban Internet of Things (IoT) concept. We explore effects of revealing uncertainty and correlation on user confidence in a data-driven decision making scenario. It was found that user confidence varied significantly amongst various user groups when different machine learning models were displayed with/without supplementary information. Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) signals were analyzed and shown as reasonable indices for predicting user confidence levels. Supplementary data visualizations (of inherent uncertainty and correlation in data) contributed to explicability principles while GSR indexing added towards correctibility principles. We recommend transparent machine learning as the key to effective EUD for interactive data analytics