Resilience Development in Multiple Shocks: Lessons in Mental Health and Well-Being Deterioration during COVID-19

Resilience describes individuals’ and organizations’ recovery from crises and adaptation to disturbances and adversities. Emerging research shows the deterioration of the population’s mental health and well-being during the multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that the resilience developed is insufficient to address the system’s persistent shocks. Drawing on the findings on mental health and well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic and the psychological and organizational resilience theories, we developed a system dynamics theory model exploring how the presence of multiple shocks to the system challenges the population’s health and well-being. We initiated the model with three shocks with the same intensities and durations, and then experimented with scenarios in which the strength of multiple shocks (duration and intensity) was attenuated and amplified. The model showed that temporary environmental adjustments with limited long-term stabilized solutions and a lack of health service provision can increase the accumulative risks of health and well-being deterioration. We highlight the role of essential health service sectors’ resilience and individuals’ and organizations’ tolerance of adversities and disturbances in providing sustainable resilience. We conclude by discussing critical factors in organizational and psychological resilience development in crises with multiple shocks to the system