Modelling District Heating in a Renewable Electricity System

With the decarbonisation of electricity generation, large scale heat pumps are becoming increasingly viable for district heating combined with thermal energy storage, district heating can provide flexibility to the electricity grid by decoupling demand from supply. This thesis examines how district heating with heat pumps and thermal energy storage can integrate with and provide a benefit to an electricity system with predominantly renewable generation. The scope of work comprises three interlinked models underpinned by the same set of meteorology data, fundamentally coupling supply and demand. First, heat load data are surveyed, and an hourly demand profile is simulated. Disaggregation of district heating loads from the national demand is accomplished via segmentation of the building stock to model heat demand at high spatiotemporal resolution. Second, a novel method of pricing hourly electricity in a zero carbon, capital-intensive renewable system with electricity storage is developed and applied to a dispatch simulation to generate hourly electricity prices. Third, a dynamic model of district heating is constructed to simulate the meeting of heat loads with different design configurations using electricity as the energy source. Model predictive control is applied with varying forecast horizons so as to minimise the cost of electricity to meet the heat demand given a time series of hourly prices and consequently optimising the capacity of thermal energy storage. It was found that a thermal energy storage capacity equivalent to 1.3% of annual demand is sufficient to minimise operating costs. Finally, the potential impact of district heating on balancing the electricity system is analysed and an equivalence between thermal and electric storage is examined. While this is highly dependent on annual conditions, it can be as much as 3.5 units of thermal storage for every unit of electrical grid storage on the system. This could potentially reduce the investment in grid storage by £36 billion, underlining the significant financial benefits of thermal storage to the whole system. The research highlights the important potential of district heating to the UK’s energy system strategy