Climate change without extinction: Tasmania's small-mammal communities persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum–Holocene transition

Global ecosystems underwent major changes through the Quaternary, as climates cycled from cool and dry glacial conditions to relatively warm and humid interglacial conditions. How these changes affected the diversity and composition of small-mammal communities is mostly unknown, especially for the southern-temperate regions of Australia. We used fossil assemblages from owl regurgitates to investigate changes in small mammals from Tasmania's forest environments over the last 20,000 years, encompassing the transition from cold glacial conditions of the Last Glacial′ Maximum (LGM) into the warmer Holocene. During the early part of this period, Tasmania was connected to mainland Australia via a low-elevation land bridge, but was transformed into a large island by rising sea levels during the Late Pleistocene – Holocene transition. Despite these changes, the regional small-mammal fauna appears to have been persistent over this entire period, with no loss of species. However, the relative abundance of most species changed dramatically, apparently in response to habitat changes, which also provoked substantial shifts in community composition and diversity. A strong indicator of the magnitude of change is Mastacomys fuscus, a graminivorus specialist murid, which dominated the assemblage prior to and during the LGM, but declined as temperature and sea level rose during the Late Pleistocene – Holocene. In contrast, the generalist rodent Pseudomys higginsi, along with the small forest-dependent marsupials Cercartetus spp. and Antechinus spp., became more common during the Holocene. The continued survival of these species to the present, despite divergent environmental needs, implies that Tasmania's complex geomorphology provided multiple refugia that conferred resilience in the face of environmental change