Trends and patterns in homicides in Italy: A 34-year descriptive study

Aims: We aimed at analyzing homicide trends and patterns in Italy over the period 1980–2014. Methods: We collected data from the Italian Mortality Database (Italian National Institute of Statistics), for the study period. Temporal trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis, with estimated annual percentage change computed for each detected trend. The possible effect of the mafia subculture was examined using an indicator of mafia social penetration. Differences between age classes, genders, geographical regions, and homicide methods were also analyzed. Results: The analyses showed an overall reduction in homicides during the study period, including a reduction in homicides by firearm. Further, we found significant differences between homicides involving male and female victims. A peak in male homicides, observed in the early 1990s, was significantly associated with mafia penetration. Conclusions: The overall reduction in homicides can be interpreted as an expression of a “civilizing process.