Complex network modelling of origin–destination commuting flows for the COVID-19 epidemic spread analysis in Italian Lombardy Region

Currently the whole world is affected by the COVID-19 disease. Italy was the first country to be seriously affected in Europe, where the first COVID-19 outbreak was localized in the Lombardy region. The further spreading of the cases led to the lockdown of the most affected regions in northern Italy and then the entire country. In this work we investigated an epidemic spread scenario in the Lombardy region by using the origin–destination matrix with information about the commuting flows among 1450 urban areas within the region. We performed a large-scale simulation-based modeling of the epidemic spread over the networks related to three main motivations, i.e., work, study and occasional transfers to quantify the potential contribution of each category of travellers to the spread of the epidemic process. Our findings outline that the three networks are characterised by different weight dynamic growth rates and that the network “work” has a critical role in the diffusion phenomenon showing the greatest contribution to the epidemic spread