Uncertainty Quantification and Runtime Monitoring Using Environment-Aware Digital Twins

A digital twin for a Cyber-Physical System includes a simulation model that predicts how a physical system should behave. We show how to quantify and characterise violation events for a given safety property for the physical system. The analysis uses the digital twin to inform a runtime monitor that checks whether the noise and violations observed fall within expected statistical distributions. The results allow engineers to determine the best system configuration through what-if analysis. We illustrate our approach with a case study of an agricultural vehicle