The Evolution of East-West Relations and the Arms Control Dialogue during the Next Two Years - A Personal Forecast

The present paper contains a personal forecast. It considers that political developments in Europe will shape East-West relations over the next years. The new political order in Europe most likely will be a community order which is designed to absorb and contain centrifugal ethnic pressures on the existing states and of responding to the transnational chal lenges linking the countries of Europe to a common future. It could include a security and disengagement zone, SDZ, compri sing the countries of East-Europe. Foreign troops and nuclear weapons would be prohibited in the zone and indigenous forces would be limited. The SDZ would contribute to a geopolitical balance in the European order between the USSR and NATO. The prospects for arms control agreements are good. START-I and CFE-I treaties will be followed up by negotiations for future reductions and constraints. CFE-II is likely to have a territorial rather than a structural orientation. The paper concludes by outlining the rationale for a structural approach to naval arms control