Presidential Approval Ratings During Times of Crisis

The rally ‘round the flag effect has been an area of study for scholars dating back to John Mueller’s work in 1970. In his article, Mueller found that following certain events president’s saw a temporary rise in executive approval ratings (Mueller, 1970). Mueller found the average change in executive approval ratings following a rally event was between 5-7 points (Mueller, 1970). No other event portrays the rally ‘round the flag effect like 9/11. Following the attacks, President Bush saw a 39% increase in his presidential approval rating. While rally point events have earned the attention of scholars, what about events that fail to meet all three of Mueller’s necessary variables? Can these events still produce noticeable change in presidential approval ratings? Which of Mueller’s three variables are the most impactful to presidential approval ratings? This thesis covers a wide variety of potential rally point events. The first study analyzes nine attacks on the United States and their impacts on presidential approval. The second study focuses on six natural disasters. The final study looks at nine pandemic related events and their impact on presidential approval. For each event, I analyzed pre-event presidential approval ratings and post-event presidential approval ratings. Due to the complexity of presidential approval ratings, this thesis conducts case studies for each of the events. This allows for factors such as the economy, timing, and the media to be accounted for. By maintaining the same methodology for each chapter, I was able to analyze all of the events combined and determine the strength of each variable in the conclusion of this thesis. This thesis examined 24 potential rally point events. These events produced an average change in presidential approval ratings of +3.5%. Events that were international in scope increased presidential approval by nearly 4 points over events that were purely domestic. Additionally, events that involved the President increased presidential approval produced a 5.25% higher change in presidential approval than events that did not involve the President. This study fits within current scholarly research. Scholars have examined both the rally ‘round the flag effect and the importance of presidential approval ratings and its various impacts. This study helps explain how attacks against the United States, natural disasters, and health pandemics can change presidential approval ratings. From there, scholars have been able to show how Presidents can from this increase in approval