Tax Evasion and Economic Crime. Empirical Evidence for Italy

This paper examines the impact of tax evasion on criminal activities in Italy. Precisely, we consider three types of crime particularly related to economic determinants: property crimes (including robberies, thefts and car thefts), frauds and usury. By using annual data for the Italian provinces (NUTS-3) over the period 2006 to 2010 to estimate a dynamic panel, we show that tax evasion substitutes both, frauds and usury, whereas crimes against the property are positively affected by tax evasion. Interestingly, the degree of substitution for fraud and usury is related to the size of tax burden. Moreover, the estimates indicate that these crimes show a different persistency over time, reflecting different adjustment costs. Finally, we find statistical significance and the expected sign for deterrence only for property crimes whereas frauds and usury are not influenced by any deterrence or clearing-up variable