Greening and Browning of the Hexi Corridor in Northwest China: Spatial Patterns and Responses to Climatic Variability and Anthropogenic Drivers

The arid region of northwest China provides a unique terrestrial ecosystem to identify the response of vegetation activities to natural and anthropogenic changes. To reveal the influences of climate and anthropogenic factors on vegetation, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), climate data, and land use and land cover change (LUCC) maps were used for this study. We analyzed the spatiotemporal change of NDVI during 2000–2015. A partial correlation analysis suggested that the contribution of precipitation (PRE) and temperature (TEM) on 95.43% of observed greening trends was 47% and 20%, respectively. The response of NDVI in the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains (ESQM) and the western section of the Qilian Mountains (WSQM) to PRE and TEM showed opposite trends. The multiple linear regressions used to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic activity on the NDVI trend indicated that the ESQM and oasis areas were mainly affected by anthropogenic activities (26%). The observed browning trend in the ESQM was attributed to excessive consumption of natural resources. A buffer analysis and piecewise regression methods were further applied to explore the influence of urbanization on NDVI and its change rate. The study demonstrated that urbanization destroys the vegetation cover within the developed city areas and extends about 4 km beyond the perimeter of urban areas and the NDVI of buffer cities (counties) in the range of 0–4 km (0–3 km) increased significantly. In the range of 5–15 (4–10) km (except for Jiayuguan), climate factors were the major drivers of a slight downtrend in the NDVI. The relationship of land use change and NDVI trends showed that construction land, urban settlement, and farmland expanded sharply by 171.43%, 60%, and 10.41%, respectively. It indicated that the rapid process of urbanization and coordinated urban-rural development shrunk ecosystem services