A Framework for Regional Ecological Risk Warning Based on Ecosystem Service Approach: A Case Study in Ganzi, China

Worldwide, most ecosystem services have declined. However, the theoretical and analytical frameworks for the ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services are still lacking. Here a framework for the risk assessment of ecosystem services was developed based on the formation, changes, risk, and management of ecosystem services. The framework was tested in Ganzi, the upstream area of the Yangtze River Basin, for the regional ecological warning of ecosystem services. Ecosystem services in the form of soil retention and sandstorm prevention and ecological risks including soil and wind erosion were modelled. The results showed that with the increase in area and quality of natural vegetation (forest and grassland), the soil retention service and sandstorm prevention service increased by 66.92% and 8.59% between 2000 and 2015, respectively. Correspondingly, the ecological risk of soil erosion decreased by 8.8%, and wind erosion remained stable. Despite the negative impacts from agricultural development on sandstorm prevention, the increase in vegetation and improvement in ecological quality led to a decrease in the ecological risks of soil erosion and sandstorm erosion by improvement of ecosystem services. This research provides a new perspective for ecological risk assessment, as well as direct management information on ecological risks, by incorporating ecosystem services