Predicting Recurrence after a First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism: Retrospective Validation of the DAMOVES Score

Unprovoked venous thromboembolism is associated with a 5 to 27% annual risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation, and indefinite anticoagulation is recommended if the bleeding risk is low to moderate. However, in one-third of patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism, the risk of recurrence is so low (<5% per year) that anticoagulant therapy >3–6 months may not be necessary. Several prediction rules were derived to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism who have a low recurrence risk. In 2016, we presented our results of the original DAMOVES, a nomogram for prediction of recurrence in an individual patient with unprovoked venous thromboembolism. The aim of this study was to externally validate this nomogram in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism