Decomposition of Fertilizer Use Intensity and Its Environmental Risk in China’s Grain Production Process

In order to fully explore the fertilizer use intensity and its potential threats to the ecological environment, this paper has studied the decomposition of fertilizer use intensity and its environmental risk in China’s grain production. Based on the statistical data collected from 10 provinces during 2004–2015 in China’s grain producing areas, this paper has analyzed the effect of fertilizer use intensity from a regional perspective. The environmental risk assessment model considers some factors such as the fertilizer application safety thresholds use efficiency, multiple cropping index, and environmental impact weight. The fertilizer application safety thresholds are calculated on the target output of local food crops. The results show that: (1) during 2004–2015, the fertilizer use intensity shows an increasing trend in China’s grain producing areas, and the intensity is significantly higher than the upper limit of the international safety fertilization; (2) the cumulative contribution rate of the increase of fertilizer use intensity caused by regional fertilizer use efficiency and grain planting structure adjustment are 57.03% and 1.81% respectively; (3) in 2015, China’s grain producing areas’ environmental risk index of phosphorus and potash was low, with the values in these two provinces being quite different and indicating the characteristics of aggregation and distribution. Therefore, the Chinese government should unswervingly encourage the application of some technology that could save fertilizer and increase efficiency, establish environmental risk monitoring and control systems, and improve relevant policies and regulations